Clinton will win DC

This primary season has taught us that winning is defined by how many delegates a candidate gets in each state's primary or caucus.  The popular vote has almost no bearing on who actually wins. Nevada is probably the paramount example.

We've also learned that superdelegates owe no allegiance to how their states voted one way or another.

Despite the high likelihood that Obama will capture 70% to 80% of the vote in DC tomorrow, it is also likely that Clinton will get more delegates.  See why below the fold...

The District of Columbia will send 38 delegates to the Democratic Convention. You might say that sounds like an awful lot of delegates for such a small "state". Well, it is.

Tomorrow, 13 pledged delegates are up for grabs. Obama will win 70% - 80% of the popular vote, and will end up with about 10 pledged delegates.

In addition to the 13 pledged delegates, DC also has 25 superdelegates. These include 2 regular superdelegates, 4 House/Senate/Mayoral delegates, and 19 DNC members and "add-ons".  The complete breakdown can be found here.

Of those 25 superdelegates, 14 have already endorsed a candidate; 11 for Clinton, 3 for Obama. They are not even elected officials. They are DNC members (e.g.  Harold Ickes).You can see the list here.

So, at this point it is quite conceivable that Obama could win the District in a landslide margin, but Clinton could actually end up with more delegates.  This is probably the most aggregious example of what Obama supporters have been worried about since the dialogue on superdelegates began.

I realize the Obama campaign has asked people not to contact or harass superdelegates. But, I think the outcome of DC may prove to be the breaking point where Obama supporters may want to take a more activist approach to this problem before the process for selecting our nominee is hijacked by party elitists.